(no subject)

Katrina now officially upgraded to Category 5, aimed straight at New Orleans. Mood at Chez Kat upgraded to officially freaked out. Ongoing MetaFilter discussion (including link to a scary blog entry by a local) being refreshed. Weather Channel playing in background.

At some point soon I'll shut down and head out for a day at the State Fair, which feels pretty incongruous, but god knows there's nothing I can *do* to be really helpful at this point, except keep fingers crossed for a swerve (which would still suck for the Gulf Coast, but might spare many thousand lives), and send all possible good wishes and thoughts to everyone in the area (with a special squeeze for sockkpuppett and suzecarol).

(no subject)

It's so surrealistic to be sitting here, on this beautifully calm sunny Minnesota afternoon, watching disaster bear down on New Orleans and feeling utterly *helpless.* I can't make myself turn the TV off, but I keep seeing footage of person-on-the-street interviews with residents, those who couldn't get out, and wondering how many of them will still be around tomorrow at this time. Apparently there's some concern about the Superdome's ability to withstand hurricane-force winds, and then you look at the long long lines of people trying to get in there....

I guess all that those of us in other parts of the US and world *can* do at this point is:
a) pray, if you're the praying sort; and
b) start caculating how much you can afford to donate to the Red Cross. Because even if this doesn't go worst-case-scenario, the devastation and the need are still going to be enormous.

(no subject)

People who are tired of hearing about Katrina, or who are actively trying to avoid the news, should probably unfriend or filter this LJ for the next few days.

Latest from the AP:
Estimates predict that 60 percent to 80 percent of the city's houses will be destroyed by wind. With the flood damage, most of the people who live in and around New Orleans could be homeless. "We're talking about in essence having — in the continental United States — having a refugee camp of a million people,'' van Heerden said.

And that's just New Orleans. Unless things change radically from current forecasts, inland damage will be vicious as well. Jesus. Fucking. God.

more Katrina

The latest from Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters:

Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knock down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.

I have focused on New Orleans in much of my discussions about this storm, but Katrina will do tens of billions in damage all along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Mobile Bay could well see a 10-foot storm surge. And inland areas will take heavy damage as well; Katrina will still be a hurricane 180 miles inland, and cause widespread flooding throughout the Tennessee Valley.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you in Katrina's way, and I urge all readers of this blog to do the same.

Yup.