more Katrina

[katallison]

The latest from Weather Underground's Dr. Jeff Masters:

Katrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knock down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.

I have focused on New Orleans in much of my discussions about this storm, but Katrina will do tens of billions in damage all along the coast of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Mobile Bay could well see a 10-foot storm surge. And inland areas will take heavy damage as well; Katrina will still be a hurricane 180 miles inland, and cause widespread flooding throughout the Tennessee Valley.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all of you in Katrina's way, and I urge all readers of this blog to do the same.

Yup.

Comments

[farwing.livejournal.com]

Holy frelling shit. *worries and prays*

[nestra.livejournal.com]

Fuck. Fuck fuck fuck, fuck, fuckity fucking fuck.

(Hear the changes in inflection on each of those?)

fuck.

[theodosia.livejournal.com]

What They Said. I'm getting pretty worried for H's folks.

[zebra363.livejournal.com]

since many people will be unable ... to get out of the city

I hope this doesn't just mean too poor to have a car (not that I'd like to be stuck on a highway in any kind of storm). I've just seen pictures of people gathering at the Superdrome on the Australian news and have to wonder why they aren't busy flying those people out. Or maybe they are?

[debg.livejournal.com]

The superdome was built to withstand 200mph winds. Katrina's been gusting at higher.

yes, what you said

[nagasvoice.livejournal.com]

robkiote noted here:
http://www.livejournal.com/users/robkaiote/412868.html?#cutid1
...I was watching the Katrina coverage as I was packing today and seeing the city of New Orleans trying to process and load thousands and thousands of people into the Super Dome in the hopes that this structure would be strong enough to hold up to the winds was really disturbing. Especially as the number of people taking shelter there got higher and higher. Last I heard it was at around 20,000...in a structure they're not certain will remain standing. My heart just went out to all those folks and their children standing in that line all miserable and hot and in the rain. It looked to me to be poor folks mostly...people who didn't have cars or a way to sustain themselves anywhere but where they were right at that moment...